Intelligence-policy relations and the problem of politicization

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2008.Includes bibliographical references (p. 399-414).A growing literature in international relations theory explores how domestic institutions filter and mediate international signals. The study of intelligence-policy relations fits naturally into this mold, because intelligence agencies are specifically designed to collect and interpret information about the international environment. This study provides a general framework for theorizing about intelligence-policy relations by exploring how leaders respond to new intelligence estimates. In addition to providing a deductive characterization of the intelligence-policy problem, the dissertation presents a model of politicization, defined as the manipulation of estimates to reflect policy preferences. When leaders commit themselves to controversial policies, they have strong domestic political incentives to put pressure on intelligence agencies to publicly support their decisions. Intelligence agencies control secret information and presumably have access to sources that are unavailable elsewhere. For this reason, the use of intelligence for policy advocacy is a uniquely persuasive kind of policy oversell. The dissertation tests the model in a series of pair-wise comparisons. The first pair of cases explains why the Johnson administration first ignored and later politicized intelligence on Vietnam. The second pair explains why, despite their differences, the Nixon and Ford administrations both ended up politicizing intelligence on the Soviet strategic threat. The last pair of cases compares the U.S. and British responses to intelligence before the recent war in Iraq. The results of the study show that domestic variables identified in the oversell model strongly affect the likelihood of politicization. Organizational and individual-level explanations are less satisfying.by Joshua Rovner.Ph.D

Ten Years In: Implementing Strategic Approaches to Cyberspace

This book represents a look beyond theories and analogies to examine the challenges of strategy implementation. In the essays that follow, practitioners who are building cyberspace forces at-scale join scholars who study power and force in this new domain to collectively offer a unique perspective on the evolution and future of cyber strategy and operations.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/usnwc-newport-papers/1044/thumbnail.jp

Dealing with femtorisks in international relations

The contemporary global community is increasingly interdependent and confronted with systemic risks posed by the actions and interactions of actors existing beneath the level of formal institutions, often operating outside effective governance structures. Frequently, these actors are human agents, such as rogue traders or aggressive financial innovators, terrorists, groups of dissidents, or unauthorized sources of sensitive or secret information about government or private sector activities. In other instances, influential .actors. take the form of climate change, communications technologies, or socioeconomic globalization. Although these individual forces may be small relative to state governments or international institutions, or may operate on long time scales, the changes they catalyze can pose significant challenges to the analysis and practice of international relations through the operation of complex feedbacks and interactions of individual agents and interconnected systems. We call these challenges "femtorisks," and emphasize their importance for two reasons. First, in isolation, they may be inconsequential and semiautonomous; but when embedded in complex adaptive systems, characterized by individual agents able to change, learn from experience, and pursue their own agendas, the strategic interaction between actors can propel systems down paths of increasing, even global, instability. Second, because their influence stems from complex interactions at interfaces of multiple systems (e.g., social, financial, political, technological, ecological, etc.), femtorisks challenge standard approaches to risk assessment, as higher-order consequences cascade across the boundaries of socially constructed complex systems. We argue that new approaches to assessing and managing systemic risk in international relations are required, inspired by principles of evolutionary theory and development of resilient ecological systems

Preparing for a Nuclear Iran: The Role of the CIA; Strategic Insights, v. 6, issue 11(November 2005)

This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.6, issue 11(November 2005)Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Juvenile life without parole: An overview

There were 2,310 people serving life-without-parole sentences for crimes committed as juveniles at yearend 2016. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia have banned life sentences without the possibility of parole for juveniles; in a handful of other states, no one is serving the sentence. Racial disparities plague the imposition of juvenile life sentences

Declines in youth commitments and facilities in the twenty-first century

Reductions in juvenile offending combined with common-sense policy changes have led to large reductions in the number and percentages of teenagers in large state facilities and generally in confinement. These educed expenditures on facilities ought to lead to real justice reinvestment in programs that can prevent offending, such as drug and alcohol counseling and mentorship programs. For teenagers with mental health concerns, a comprehensive approach, such as multisystemic therapy which addresses the many factors that can impact a teenager’s offending, is an effectiveintervention that supports teenagers and their families. Despite impressive decreases in youth held in juvenile facilities, disturbing racial disparities still persist nationally, as well as the unnecessary detention of low-level and nonviolent offenders

Disproportionate minority contact in the juvenile justice system

Racial and ethnic disparities weaken the credibility of a justice system that purports to treat everyone equitably. Across the country, juvenile justice systems are marked by disparate racial outcomes at every stage of the process, starting with more frequent arrests for youth of color and ending with more frequent secure placement

What is an Intelligence Contest? (Fall 2020)

LBJ School of Public Affair

Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence

In Fixing the Facts, Joshua Rovner explores the complex interaction between intelligence and policy and shines a spotlight on the problem of politicization. Major episodes in the history of American foreign policy have been closely tied to the manipulation of intelligence estimates. Rovner describes how the Johnson administration dealt with the intelligence community during the Vietnam War; how President Nixon and President Ford politicized estimates on the Soviet Union; and how pressure from the George W. Bush administration contributed to flawed intelligence on Iraq. He also compares the U.S. case with the British experience between 1998 and 2003, and demonstrates that high-profile government inquiries in both countries were fundamentally wrong about what happened before the warOhio State University. Mershon Center for International Security Studies.Event Web Page, Event Photos, MP4 Vide

AirSea Battle and Escalation Risks

While the U.S. Navy previously enjoyed more or less unfettered access to operate in the South China, East China, and Philippine Seas, new Chinese capabilities are likely to make these areas “contested zones.” Newly acquired or produced weapons systems could make life very difficult for the Navy in the region. Equipped with a range of new anti-access capabilities, China may even be able to deter the United States from intervening in the case of a war with Taiwan. Given the changes, it is not surprising that U.S. strategists are increasingly focused on solving the anti-access problem. One recently announced solution is AirSea Battle (ASB), an operational concept for integrating naval and air assets in order to overcome anti-access capabilities. This policy brief evaluates the pros and cons of AirSea Battle as it might be applied in a conflict between China and the United States